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Commentary No. 378, June 1,
2014
"The Russian-Chinese
Geopolitical Game"
Governments,
politicians, and media in the "western" world seem incapable of
understanding geopolitical games as played by anyone elsewhere. Their analyses
of the newly proclaimed accord of Russia and China are a stunning example of
this.
On
May 16, Russia and China announced that they had signed a "friendship
treaty" that would last "forever" but was not a military
alliance. Simultaneously, they announced a gas deal, in which the two countries
will build a gas pipeline to export Russian gas to China. China will lend
Russia the money with which to build its share of the pipeline. It seems that Gazprom (Russia's major gas and oil producer) made some
price concessions to China, an issue that had been holding up an agreement for
some time.
If
one read the media on May 15, it was full of articles explaining why such an
accord was unlikely. When it nonetheless occurred the next day, western
governments, politicians, and media were split between those who thought it was
a geopolitical victory for Russian President Vladimir Putin (and deplored this)
and those who argued that it would not make much geopolitical difference.
It
is quite clear from discussions and votes in the U.N. Security Council over the
last few years that Russia and China share an aversion to the various proposals
put forward by the United States (and often seconded by various European
countries) to authorize direct involvement (opening the way ultimately to
military involvement) in the civil strife in Ukraine and in the multiple
conflicts in the Middle East.
The
unilateral sanctions that the United States has already imposed on Russia
because of its alleged behavior in Ukraine and the threat of still more
sanctions has no doubt hastened Russia's desire to find additional outlets for
its gas and oil. And this has in turn led to much talk of a revived "cold
war" between Russia and the United States. But is this really the main
point of the new Russia-China agreement?
It
seems to me that both countries are really interested in a different restructuring
of interstate alliances. What Russia is really seeking is an agreement with
Germany. And what China is really seeking is an agreement with the United
States. And their ploy is to announce this "forever" alliance between
themselves.
Germany
is clearly internally divided about the prospect of including Russia within a
European sphere. The advantage to Germany of such an arrangement would be to
consolidate Germany's customer base in Russia for its production, guarantee its
energy needs, and incorporate Russia's military strength in its long-term
global planning. Since this would inevitably mean the creation of a post-NATO
Europe, there is opposition to the idea not only within Germany but of course
within Poland and the Baltic states as well. From Russia's point of view, the
object of the Russia-China friendship treaty is to strengthen the position of
those in Germany favorable to working with Russia.
China,
on the other hand, is fundamentally interested in taming the United States and
reducing its role in east Asia. But this said, it wants to reinforce, not weaken, its links with the
United States. China seeks to invest in the United States at the bargain rates
it thinks are now available. It wants the United States to accept its emergence
as the dominant regional power in east and southeast
Asia. And it wants the United States to use its influence to keep Japan and
South Korea from becoming nuclear powers.
Of
course, what China wants is not consonant with the prevailing ideological
language in the United States. Nonetheless, there seems to be quiet support for
such an evolution of alliances within the United States, especially within
major corporate structures. Just as Russia wants to use the friendship treaty
to encourage certain groups in Germany to move in the direction it finds most
useful, so China wishes to do the same with the United States.
Will
such geopolitical games work? Possibly, but by no means
certainly. Still, from the perspective of both Russia and China, they
have everything to gain and very little to lose by using this ploy. The real
question is how the internal debate in Germany and the United States will
evolve in the near future. As for the argument that the world is returning to a
cold war between the United States and Russia, think of this argument as simply
the counterploy of those who understand the game that
Russia and China are playing and are attempting to counter it.
by Immanuel Wallerstein
[Copyright by Immanuel Wallerstein, distributed by Agence
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These commentaries, published twice monthly, are intended to be reflections on
the contemporary world scene, as seen from the perspective not of the immediate
headlines but of the long term.]
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